Preliminary annual benchmark review of employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reveals that U.S. job growth over the past year was much weaker than initially reported, with 818,000 fewer jobs in March 2024 than previously estimated. This revision, the largest since 2009, suggests the labor market wasn’t as strong as believed, although job growth was initially reported to be historically high. The average monthly job gain from April 2023 to March 2024 was revised down to 173,500 from nearly 242,000 which means only about two thirds of the jobs that were reported were real.
This may increase pressure on the Fed’s monetary policy decisions and could result in a 50 bp cut mid-September.
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