CoreLogic also has a forecast element to its report and it estimates home prices will decline 0.2% in January 2023. Again, as they do see a monthly drop in January, they are expecting home pricing to continue to appreciate by 3% in 2023.
Also mentioned was the change in home prices from their peak and CoreLogic detailed that home prices nationwide have only declined by 3% from their peak. This is a far cry from what the media may have you believe as they are mentioning home pricing to fall by 20% to 30%.
Similar to the change in home prices from their peak, the Case Shiller Home Price Index, which is the “gold standard” of home appreciation data, showed that home prices have only declined by 3.6% from their peak which is certainly a softening but again a far cry from the crash where homes dropped by 20% – 30%.
Although, the pace of appreciation decelerated from 9.7% in the previous Case Shiller report and 20.8% at the peak in March, this does not mean that home prices are down 13.1% from their peak. This just shows that home price gains have slowed to only a 7.7% of appreciation annually.
Home prices are still very strong due to the amount of buyer demand still out there. As interest rates continue to improve or decline, we will certainly see the appetite for home purchases strengthen and this could cause home prices to appreciate at a quicker pace going forward as we get closer to the middle of Q2.Jon Iacono