April 15, 2024

Employment Data and The Fed

The ADP Employment report, which measures private sector job growth beat expectations in March, led by a large boost in the leisure and hospitality sector, as employers added 184K new jobs versus the 148K that were expected. February’s figures were also revised higher from 140K to 155K new jobs.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released their jobs report for the month of March, and it showed that job growth came in above forecasts, as the BLS reported that 303K new jobs were created. There were revisions to the prior data for January and February which added a combined 22K jobs to those months. When looking at the Household Survey we saw that the unemployment rate fell from 3.9% to 3.8%. Taking a deeper look into the numbers reveals that there is some weakness as losses in full-time jobs were offset by gains among part-time jobs and multiple job holders.

We must pay close attention to these reports because they give us a gauge on the health of the economy which will dictate how the Fed will continue with their policy.

Speaking of the Fed and their policy, we recently heard from Boston Fed President, Susan Collins, who said she believes the Fed will get two 25 basis point cuts to the Federal Funds Rate this year which is currently at 5.25%-5.50%. She thinks it will take longer to get inflation to its target than previously thought. She is still expecting that we’re going to see demand slow throughout the year, which will help to bring inflation down and should help longer-term interest rates improve.

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By: Jon Iacono
A Family

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